The Challenge

Following completion of a Flood Study and Flood Early Warning System, Council wanted to know how much time was required to evacuate Oakey. Council also wanted to know the order in which roads became impassable and how the community is likely to respond under various scenarios.

Approach and Outcomes

WMS teamed with BMT WBM to undertake Agent Based Modelling (ABM). ABM simulates the actions and interactions of autonomous individuals during a simulated event. In this case, the simulated events are a range of design floods and the autonomous individuals are people, both in vehicles and pedestrians. A range of data is incorporated into the modelling including speed limits, road capacities, demographics and TUFLOW model results. A suite of simulations were undertaken including day and night scenarios, warning and no warning scenarios for large and very large floods. The findings of this study will be used in an emergency to determine the time available to run and refine flood forecasting simulations before making the decision to order residents to evacuate.